According to the report, the agency maintained the sovereign rating of Uzbekistan at “BB-”, paying particular attention to the following:
- The government has advanced in implementing comprehensive reforms and modernising the economy
- The country is successful in implementing institutional reforms. In particular, it was noted that the Doing Business, Perception of Corruption indices, as well as the World Bank’s management indices improved significantly;
- There has been a decrease in dollarisation in the banking system, which, combined with measures aimed at reducing the segmentation of the credit market, will help the Central Bank switch to inflation targeting and increase the effectiveness of monetary policy;
- The tax base has expanded and tax collection has improved, as well as increased fiscal transparency in the country;
- The reform of enterprises with a state share and an increase in direct investment remain the priority tasks of the government.
At the same time, the forecast on the rating of the republic was changed from “stable” to “negative”.
The negative outlook reflects our view that Uzbekistan’s external and fiscal debt could continue to increase rapidly over at least the next 12 months, potentially at a faster pace, while benefits of government investment related to increased borrowing will only become apparent over the medium term.
At the same time, S&P Global Ratings acknowledges that despite the high growth rate of public external debt, the risks associated with public
debt are still low. The Agency noted the following factors that will have a positive impact on the international sovereign rating of our country in the future:
- The pace of external debt accumulation slows over the medium term
- Increased integration with the global economy and government SOE reforms could if they result in increased economic growth potential and resiliency;
- Diversification of the government’s revenue base or the composition of exports.
At the same time, according to “S&P Global Ratings”, the following factors are listed as factors that negatively affect the international sovereign rating of the republic:
- Faster growth in external debt and a significant deterioration in the fiscal balance as a result of an increase in the debt burden until 2023;
- An increase in government contingent liabilities as a result of the deterioration of state-owned enterprises;
- A significant increase in the level of dollarisation in the economy.